On this screen, you start by entering, or copying in from the One Second Simulator, the "Win per 100 hnds" and the "SD per 100 hnds" values for the play style and game you are analyzing. Then, from drop-down lists or your own entry, you specify: Trip $ Unit, (use $1 if you wish to work in "units"); Your $$ Trip Bank - the amount of money you are bringing with you on the "trip"; the number of hours you intend to play (Trip Hours); the "Hands per Hour" you expect to experience; and finally, if you like, a "Trip Goal" - an amount of $$ for which you would like to see the probability of reaching at some point in your trip, and subject to the possibility of your running out of your trip stake.

Now, you need only mouse-click on the "Calculate" button to instantly generate all of the Trip-related statistics. Change the settings and click again, as often as you like. At any point, you can print an image of the screen data by clicking on the "Print Screen Image" button.

An additional screen feature, Post-Trip Result Analysis, allows you to type in an actual Trip Result, in $$. When you click on the associated Calc button, you will see the plus or minus Standard Deviation value that the entered trip result represents. Additionally, the screen text will translate that SD number into a probability value (%) that will tell you how likely the event was.

Finally this Trip Risk of Ruin screen gives you access to what I hope you will find to be a very eye-opening feature, the Take A Random Walk. For the type of games and conditions you play, the Random Walk screen graphically depicts statistically accurate representations of the hour-by-hour and trip-by-trip results that you are likely to experience. Specifically, it is based on the parameters you currently have loaded onto the Trip Risk of Ruin screen. Should you change those items, they will be automatically accounted for in your next Random Walk.

I trust that you will find that this BJRM feature really drives home a sense for the effect standard deviation can have on your blackjack "fortunes."

Statistics Displayed on the Trip Risk of Ruin Screen:

Bankroll Risks section

Complete Trip RUIN:

This is your percentage chance of completely running out of the Trip Bank you brought, at some time during the total Trip Hours.

Odds of Hitting Trip GOAL:

There are three statistics in this grouping.

The first shows your probability of hitting your Trip GOAL, at some point within the Trip Hours, and subject to the possibility of running completely out of Trip Bank before doing so. This is a very tricky "double barrier"-type calculation that is very difficult to compute by hand.

The second GOAL statistic shows your probability of hitting your Trip GOAL, at some point within the Trip Hours, but NOT subject to the possibility of running completely out of Trip Bank before doing so, because it assumes that you can replenish your trip bank if you happen to run out.

And the third stat shows the probability of reaching your Trip Goal, subject to the constraints of your Trip Bank (you could "tap out"), but with no limit on time - the Trip Hours limit is NOT factored in. Thus, this last figure is just the probability of reaching a goal, given a fixed, limited Bank.

Trip $$ Expectations section

Trip $ Win Expectation is based on assuming both the Trip Bank only, and an "infinite" Trip Bank - you replenish as necessary.

Hourly Win Rate: If blackjack is/were your "job," think of this as your gross hourly pay rate.

Trip Probabilities - no Bank limit: The statistics in this group are all based solely on the Inf Bank Win Rate expectation, and the Trip Hours time limit. There is no allowance for the possibility that the Trip Bank might not last. Furthermore, they are the expectations for exactly the Trip Hours amount of play, which contrast with some of the Odds of Hitting GOAL stats, some of which assume that you stop play when you reach GOAL, regardless of whether the full Trip Hours have passed.

The stats displayed are all $$-based, and represent the range of final trip amounts that would statistically fall within plus and minus 1, 2 and 3 Standard Deviation expectations.

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