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Based on the statistics and probabilities you currently have displayed on the Trip Stats screen, this BJRM feature allows you to "take a random walk" down a representative trail of wins and losses that reflect the session-by-session cumulative fluctuations of a card counter's bankroll. It is offered to help give you a feel for the effects that standard deviation can have on your results as they progress from the Short Run into the Long Run. Read 'em and weep, and, your mileage may vary, as they say.
This feature is very easy to use. You simply click the Calc! button to see a graphed result. Before doing that, however, you have a few options from which to choose.
By Hour vs. All At Once: Governs the way the Random Walk Trip Chart is built.
- If you select By Hour, the chart will be built one hour at a time, each hour requiring a click of the Calc! button. Keep clicking until you have a trip worth's of hours (if you have not disabled it, an audible "beep" will sound as the last trip hour is displayed). Then, on the next click, a new trip will start, with its own hour #1. The previous Trip's final total will be accumulated in the Lifetime total fields.
- If you select All At Once, an entire trip chart will be built, all at once, with a single click of the Calc! button. You will see as many columns on the chart as you have specified hours in a trip. On the next click, an entire new trip's worth of hours will display. The previous trips final total will be accumulated in the Lifetime total fields.
Auto Replenish Trip Bank versus Enforce Trip Bank: Governs whether a trip ends if you happen to "tap out."
- If you select Auto Replenish Trip Bank, then the chart routine will continue with the Trip, even if, sometime during any Trip hour, you have tapped out - losing all of your Trip Bank, plus any winnings you may have accumulated since the Trip began. It will be as if you simply took a Marker, or otherwise replenished your trip bank.
- If you select Enforce Trip Bank, the Trip chart routine will STOP if, at sometime during any Trip hour, you have tapped out - losing all of your Trip Bank, plus any winnings you may have accumulated since the Trip began. Unlike in real life, however, the screen will tell you what would have happened, this trip, if you had replenished your trip bank, and continued on. Regardless, the effect on the Lifetime totals will only be that of a Trip Bank $ loss.
No Beep: The program will sound an audible "beep" if you tap out of Trip Bank. It will also "beep" when you have accumulated a Trip's worth of hours with the By Hour setting selected - warning you that the next click will start a new Trip. You can turn off these "beeps" by selecting this option.
Start Over: Clicking this button will clear all totals from the screen, Trip-based and Lifetime, allowing you to start the whole random walk process over.
Show Life and Show Trip buttons: As your completed Trips accumulate, you are building up lifetime totals, trip by trip. If you click the Show Life button, the Trip Chart will be replaced with a Life Chart that displays a graph of each Trips net result. Click the Show Trip button to return to the Chip Chart display. Note: If you have the All At Once option selected, and are displaying the Life Chart, then each click of the Calc! button will generate another complete Trip column, so that you can watch your lifetime results build Trip-at-a-time, just as you previously watched a Trip's worth of hours build up.
Note: Whenever any graph is displayed, you can mouse-click on any column and the screen will display the exact Unit and Dollar amount that it represents.
Raw Stats: Click this button to toggle between the Charts and a display of the raw Trip Statistics, from the Trip Stats screen, that are driving all the Random Walk calculations.
Nadir and Zenith Data: At the completion of a Trip, text will be displayed, along the bottom of the graph, that will summarize the final Trip $ total, along with the low (nadir) and high (zenith) $ points you reached during the Trip.
Latest Hour's Result: If By Hour is selected, this represents the $$ amount of the latest hour.
Trip $ Total: The "so far" Trip $ Total. Reset to "0" when a new Trip begins.
Trip Total Hands: The "so far" trip total hands, based on hours and hands per hour from the Trip Stats screen. Reset to "0" when a new Trip begins.
Trip Total Hours: The "so far" Trip hours. Reset to "0" when a new Trip begins.
Completed Trips: The number of completed trips. Updated when all trip hours are complete, or when you have tapped out.
Lifetime Unit Total: The "so far" net result, in # of units, of all your trip results.
Lifetime $ Total: The "so far" net result, in $$'s, of all your trip results.
Life $ Expectation: This is the result you "should" have accumulated, based on trip expectation, by this point in time. You can compare this field with the Lifetime $ Total, to see how "lucky" you have been, so far. As you approach the Long Run, you should see Life $ Expectation and Lifetime $ Total converge. Note: In a manner of speaking, we'll all get there (convergence of actual results and expectation), just by very different paths. Repeated use of this Random Walk feature should drive that point home to you.
Life Hours: The "so far" lifetime hours.
Life Hands: The "so far" lifetime hands played or observed. Based on Trip Hours and Hands per Hour.
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